Militant Islamist groups in Africa have led to the deaths of more than 150 000 people over the last decade, and continue to be highly active agents of instability across five theatres on the continent, new research has found.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) in a new report found that between 2016 and 2019, there were 10 774 fatalities a year on average due to militant Islamist groups, primarily in the Sahel, Somalia, Mozambique, North Africa, and Lake Chad Basin. Between 2019 and 2022 this went up to 13 950 fatalities a year, before climbing even higher to 22 315 fatalities a year between 2022 and 2025.
Escalating violence in the Sahel and Somalia caused fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa to surge by 60% since 2023, the ACSS found. “The 22 307 fatalities linked to these groups over the past year sustain a record level of lethality observed since 2023”.
Nearly half of the fatalities (10 685) in the past year have been in the Sahel. Somalia represents roughly a third of the continental fatalities (7 289). Along with the Lake Chad Basin, these three regions account for 99% of the militant Islamist-linked fatalities in Africa the past year.
All five African theatres (including Mozambique and North Africa) remain highly dynamic with militant insurgents mounting offensive operations in each, especially in the Sahel and Somalia. Battle-related fatalities have increased in every theatre over the past year—resulting in a 14% rise of battle-related deaths across the continent (15 678), according to the ACSS.
The past year has also seen militant Islamists groups in the Sahel and Somalia expand their hold on territory. Across Africa, an estimated 950 000 square kilometres of populated territories are outside government control due to militant Islamist insurgencies. This is equivalent to the size of Tanzania.
Over the past decade, Somalia and the Lake Chad Basin countries (Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and southeastern Niger) have been the two theatres that have consistently experienced the greatest levels of violence—each typically accounting for at least a quarter of all annual fatalities. This shifted in 2022 with the surge of fatalities in the Sahel. As a result of the rapid deterioration of security in the Sahel, Somalia and the Sahel have now experienced more militant Islamist-related fatalities over the past decade (each over 49 000) than any other region. The Lake Chad Basin countries have suffered an estimated 39 000 fatalities over this timeframe. Collectively, Africa has experienced roughly 155 000 militant Islamist group-linked deaths over the past decade, the ACSS said.
While there were deteriorations in four of five theatres, North Africa witnessed an improvement over the last decade, with a steady decline in violent events and fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups since 2016 when the region experienced a peak of 3 731 related deaths. For the last three years the number of fatalities in North Africa has averaged just over 30. Most of these have been related to security force sweeps of remaining militant Islamist members at large.
The past year saw 13 violent events and 17 fatalities, all in Algeria. Three of the events in Algeria were linked to a small cell, including foreign fighters (likely from ISIS), who had come from Syria to raise funds for the global network. Prior to 2024, Egypt had been the locus of militant Islamist violence in North Africa.
In Libya, the United Nations noted the continued presence of militant Islamist groups in the southwestern part of the country providing logistical and financial support to Sahel-based affiliates. It also reported that Libyan services apprehended two Syrian nationals who were helping to facilitate the movement of fighters from Syria to Mali through Libya.
The incidents in Algeria and Libya underscore the enduring security concerns facing North African countries from fighters returning from abroad, and the need for continued vigilance to counter attempts to strengthen links among militant Islamist groups across the continent and globally, the ACSS said.
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