The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints, is facing renewed instability amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to the latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) issued by maritime intelligence firm Dryad Global, the risk to commercial shipping in the region is now at its highest in recent years.
A key concern stems from Iran’s parliamentary approval of a proposal to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, which handles more than 26% of global oil trade.
While a complete shutdown remains improbable due to the economic impact such a move would have on Iran and its trading partners — including China — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) has been stepping up asymmetric operations aimed at disrupting maritime activity.
Recent developments in the strait include:
Deployment of advanced IRGCN assets such as drone carriers, corvettes, and high-speed attack boats
Reports of illegal boardings, drone surveillance, and swarm tactics against merchant vessels
Extensive GPS and AIS jamming, affecting around 1,000 vessels in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas and Abu Musa Island
False radio communications mimicking coalition warships, raising the risk of navigational errors and vessel seizures
In response, Western military presence in the region has intensified, with both US and UK carrier strike groups deployed. Meanwhile, military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE are on heightened alert.
Impact on Shipping Operations
Dryad Global assesses that vessels linked to the US, UK, Israel, or France face a severe risk, while the overall commercial threat level is rated as significant.
Operators transiting the Strait of Hormuz are being urged to take the following precautions:
Steer clear of Iranian territorial waters near Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb
Navigate closer to Omani waters when routing through the strait
Install anti-jamming and inertial navigation technologies
Conduct regular anti-boarding drills and consider enhancing onboard security
Maintain open and continuous communication with UKMTO and coalition forces (CTF-150)
Report GPS interference, spoofed signals, or any suspicious drone activity immediately
Dryad also notes continued threats to shipping in other global hotspots:
Gulf of Guinea: Armed approaches and attempted boardings remain an issue
Southeast Asia: Incidents of robbery and unauthorised boardings continue
Indian Ocean: Threats persist, particularly where tied to regional geopolitical developments
While some regions, notably West Africa, have shown a decline in piracy incidents, the Middle East remains a focal point of concern amid the ongoing conflict dynamics and military posturing.
As the situation evolves, Dryad Global stresses the importance of heightened vigilance and dynamic risk assessments across all maritime operations in high-risk areas.
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